Having taken a step back away from markets to just relax and gather my thoughts, I’m just gonna do a short reflection piece.
-I’m a better longer time frame investor than a trader, I’m confident I could improve and just need more experience I think. I’m extremely good at trading in OSRS, while obviously OSRS is a lot more simple than the crypto market, I think the skills should translate over somewhat. The biggest barriers rn are not fully understanding the impact oi and funding has on markets, and also how long/shorts closing affect price. I’m really good at reading OSRS price charts and being able to understand how those markets are behaving, because I was the one market making. In crypto, there’s a billion more players, a lot of whom are smart as fuck, so a lot more lost in crypto. I was watching a CL207 trading stream the other day, very clear from just watching like 30 minutes that I’m lacking in knowledge in that area. That being said, just the fact that I’m starting to understand what I don’t know shows that I have improved.
-My "investments" have performed a lot better, I was early to OHM, bought CVX at $3 and RGT at like $6 during the summer, my biggest mistake was not allocating harder, but to be fair I was dealing with a lot of personal stuff then + in a worse place financially, hard to justify throwing money into risky investments when you’re poorer.
-I’m pretty good at not getting caught in hype, which is both good and bad. OHM forks performed really well, before a lot of died spectacularly. the minus side is it would’ve been easy to do at a bare minimum 2-3x on most forks, plus side is I was entertained from the sidelines. Since I looked at these forks as an investor, I thought most of these will die and I was right. What I overlooked is that they would do 5-20x before dying.
-Since I like the long time frame I own both Chainlink and Cosmos. This decision is in my opinion, both very stupid and hopefully pretty smart. I think web 2 people might understand these better than crypto degens tbh. (One good example of this imo, is the ex-Google CEO joining Chainlink. That’s a dude who can pretty much hold an tech job he wants and he chose Chainlink. Is that not bullish af?) Infrastructure stuff will only be properly valued once it sees at a minimum 10x more use imo. Who cares about shit like Arweave when you could store all historically important nfts on a 2gb flash drive rn. Crypto degens are too busy printing money off dog coins to care about infrastructure that no one is using. Stuff like this makes me think about the CMSHolding’s twitter bio: “Do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right”. I think about this bio pretty frequently.
-Expanding a bit on the prior two, my thesis is pretty simple for both.
Chainlink has proven itself to be a core piece of crypto infrastructure at this point, things like the Coinmarketcap oracle are a good example of what can go wrong in this area. On top of the product being good and the team being smart, Chainlink has so much money to work with that they can hire the smartest people in the world to figure shit out. I also strongly doubt Chainlink remains solely in the oracles area, I think they’re gonna expand outward eventually. Chainlink could very possibly become the equivalent of a crypto FAANG company- dominate one area (oracles/data), fund new products and tech. Microsoft did it with their operating system, Google did it with their search engine, etc. That said, the Link bear market can easily go on for another 2-3 years.
Cosmos on the other hand, I believe will be priced appropriately a lot more faster, despite underperforming all of this year. I firmly believe that the future is multichain, and I think you’re delusional if you disagree. Ethereum is so crowded that people are fleeing to other blockchains to dive into the crypto metaverse. Alt L1s like SolLunAvax literally only exist because the demand for blockchain space was greater than Ethereum could provide. This leads to the middleware that we call bridges in order for us to do the ahhhhhh im bridggggginggggg meme. Cosmos is designed to be interoperable with any chain, hence “the internet of blockchains”.
This is the roadmap, though I think the biggest short term catalyst will be the Gravity bridge to Ethereum. If Cosmos can siphon a portion of the activity away from Ethereum with the promise of lower gas fees and faster transaction times, people will naturally bridge over. I believe the plan is for people routing transaction through the Cosmos hub to pay a small fee in Atom- with enough volume, Atom stakers will be rewarded well, and prices will be driven up. Regardless, I’m really bullish on multichain bets, and I think Atom is one of the easiest ones.
Now for the fun part, predictions for next year (though I don’t really have any crazy ones):
-Don’t think the bull is over, now is probably the time to buy, but I think you could wait for a clearer uptrend and be able to buy with less risk. You might lose out on some profits, but I’m a believer in better safe than sorry. I would be surprised if the bull lasts past 6 months though. Macro isn’t looking as good for the next year, the money printer is starting to be put away, tapering increasing etc. A possible scenario that I think may happen is that we will do very well Q1, euphoria as everyone is rich, institutions will derisk ahead of an inevitable rate hike and dump billions onto bulltard retail clamoring to buy the dip, the rate hike will be announced, massive sell off occurs, we get one ugly liquidation candle, retail capitulates, we bleed out and institutions start to buy back in. The crypto circle of life. I would probably cash out as on as it looks like a lower high is being printed.
-I think metaverse/p2e stuff is pretty bad right now, mostly because people were investing in garbage like SAND and MANA off hype alone. The actual products for these metaverse coins vary from currently non-existent to pretty bad. That said, I think DFK should outperform by a lot. The developers behind it are pushing a lot of development, and it’s seems to be better than all other games in the category at the moment. I think it will become the new AXS. It took me a while to come around on DFK, but it’s clearly a growing game with a strong community and actual novel game mechanics. I think fading it would be stupid. I think this may become one of the biggest narratives of next year. I bet we will see some games heavily influenced by it launch next year, the same way we saw OHM forks this year. Once this happens, I expect a 2-3 month run.
-Alt L1’s should do well, but my bet for the winner next year is AVAX. I’m not sure if I would want to hold it past say Q2, but I think it’s just the best non-Eth chain, and will stay that for the near future. Sol is getting fud from everywhere, plus most people are rekt on Sol defi/nfts, so I don’t think people are gonna come rushing back. On top of that, there isn’t a whole lot to do in Sol. Luna suffers from a similar problem of just not enough products, mostly because they focused on their stablecoin first. That leaves AVAX, which has the most Eth-like products, faster txs, and cheaper fees. The L1 that will be valued the highest is the L1 with the most users, and we’ve seen lots of organic activity on AVAX. Additionally, the first place most people will land on AVAX is JOE, and JOE has a really good UI/UX. This landing on JOE can be seen as a really positive part of the AVAX onboarding process. Send it up.
-Curve/CVX/Redacted will be the defi winners imo. The Curve wars are heating up, and you see protocols proposes 10+ million buys every two to three weeks now. I don’t see any reason why this will slow down. If anything, it will speed up. I’m not sure how to feel about Redacted atm, definitely the highest r/r one on the list. Haven’t bought any, partially because I hate Ethereum as a chain right now, but might do so. That said, if Redacted does well, it’ll push OHM up as well. Maybe Dani coins will do well, he seems to be the defi narrative at the moment, but I’m really not familiar with his stuff.
Ok that’s about all I’ve got.
-ct_zpy